Tips from our SBA Program Director

How to Build Quality Projections

When applying for an SBA loan, financial projections and a business plan often play a crucial role in the evaluation process. While not all SBA loans require these projections, and not all lenders will request them, understanding when and why they are needed can significantly enhance your loan application.

When are projections needed?

Since the requirement is to provide projections in the absence of historical performance to support the loan, here are some examples of when projections are required:

  • Start-up business: With no historical performance to review, a new business is required to supply projections that show positive cash flow within two years.
  • Change of ownership: Although not specifically required by SBA, a lender may request projections to understand how the business will look under the new ownership.
  • New divisions/product lines: With an expansion, it is common for the historical cash flow to not support the new debt since the business is expecting increased revenue from the new division or product line and will need projections to support.
  • Recent performance concerns: This is a turnaround situation, and projections are required to show how the business intends to reach positive cash flow.

 

Note, lenders do have the authority to request projections on any SBA request to support their decision.

What should be included?

Because business models may be different depending on the industry, projections can come in all shapes and sizes. They must also include relevant assumptions to understand how the numbers were derived.

In step with building your assumptions is something known as key performance indicators (KPIs). These are metrics that measure a company’s success. An example might be a chart looking out 30 days on car rentals to determine what percentage of the fleet is rented. This helps manage the size of the fleet to maximize revenue and profitability. Each industry will have its own unique KPIs. It’s good for a business to understand what underlying information leads to success.

Projections should include:

  • Revenue/Sales: If there are different revenue sources, those should be individually listed. Assumptions might include the average spend per customer or average order size.
  • Cost of Goods Sold: These are the variable costs associated with generating the revenue. Again, understanding the per item cost is helpful.
  • Gross Profit: This is the net number from the two categories above.
  • Expenses: These are the indirect costs for the business. They typically include categories such as rent, utilities, wages not included in cost of goods sold, owner compensation, and many more. Assumptions may include the salary or hourly cost per employee.
  • Net Profit: This is the bottom-line profit for the company after all expenses.

 

These are just a sample of major categories included in the projections; most will be more detailed to provide the most accurate picture of business expectations.

Ready to get started?

There are resources available to assist a business owner with projections (some are free). Be sure to ask about the options available for assistance. While projections are a guess at what will happen in the future, well-thought-out ones with supporting data can be very effective.


At Community First Bank of Indiana, we’ve been a Preferred Lender with the SBA since our founding in 2003. You can feel confident working with our team as we share our 30+ years of industry experience with a specialty in delivering the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) programs to small businesses.

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